2024-12-13 05:00:11
Australia's 3-year bond yields fell by 3 basis points after the RBA commented on inflation.Reserve Bank of Australia: You can't say when you have confidence in inflation. Reserve Bank of Australia President Brock said that you can't say when you have confidence in inflation, but the Committee has noticed weak data. Our forecast does show that inflation will slow down. If this happens, there will be a moment when we will be confident enough that inflation will return to the target range and start to relax interest rates. We will observe the upcoming data before the meeting in February next year and evaluate what these data mean for inflation and whether we can achieve our forecast.Huang Wentao of China CITIC Construction Investment Co., Ltd. and others: It is estimated that deficit ratio will rise to over 4% in 2025, and it is expected that the stock and debt will continue. On December 9th, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2025. Huang Wentao, chief economist of CITIC Jiantou, and Liu Tianyu, macro analyst of CITIC Jiantou, believe that the policy tone of this Politburo meeting is quite proactive, which shows that the central government has made a full assessment and policy reserve for the pressures and risks that may be encountered in economic development next year, which has strongly echoed the expectations of economic entities. Huang Wentao and Liu Tianyu pointed out that GDP growth in the fourth quarter is expected to reach more than 5.2%, achieving the expected goal of annual economic growth of around 5%. On this basis, the annual growth target of about 5% will also be the basic premise of policy discussion in the next few years. Since the fourth quarter of this year, the fiscal policy has been continuously overweight. This time, the fiscal policy is set to be "more active", which indicates that the fiscal policy will expand again. It is estimated that deficit ratio will increase to over 4% in 2025. Both stocks and debts are expected to continue. Unconventional countercyclical adjustment policies not only provide sufficient impetus for the recovery of economic vitality, but also provide strong support for improving expectations and reviving confidence, and provide sufficient source of living water for the capital market. The stock market is expected to continue to strengthen and the risk-free rate of return is expected to continue to decline.
Reserve Bank of Australia: Considering the recent data, the Committee's assessment is that monetary policy is still restrictive and is working as expected. In the November forecast, the degree of relief of wage pressure exceeded expectations.China Heihe-Russia Kanikurgan Highway Port Passenger Transport was officially opened. On December 10th, with the first passenger completing the exit formalities, China Heihe Highway Port-Russia Kanikurgan Highway Port Passenger Transport was officially opened. Passengers take buses from Heihe International Highway Passenger Station in China and Amoula Suo International Bus Station in Blagoveshchensk, Russia, respectively, and cross the Sino-Russian cross-border highway bridge, with four buses entering and leaving each country every day. After the official opening of passenger transportation at Heihe Highway Port, the functions of Sino-Russian highway ports have been further improved, providing a more convenient channel for cross-border communication. (CCTV News)Zhejiang took the lead in exploring the EOD model system. Recently, the Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment, the Provincial Development and Reform Commission, the Zhejiang Branch of CDB and the Zhejiang Branch of Agricultural Development Bank jointly issued the Guidelines for the Storage of Zhejiang Eco-environment-oriented Development (EOD) Projects (Trial), the Management Regulations of Zhejiang Eco-environment-oriented Development (EOD) Projects (Trial), and the Implementation Evaluation Rules of Zhejiang Eco-environment-oriented Development (EOD) Projects (Trial) EOD model is an innovation of market-oriented eco-environmental governance model, which aims to promote the effective integration, value-added feedback and overall promotion of eco-environmental governance with strong public welfare and related industries with good returns, and realize the integrated development of regional eco-environmental governance and industries. At present, 18 EOD projects in the province have been included in the financial support project library of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, and two batches of 18 provincial pilot EOD projects have been announced. (released by Zhejiang)
Foreign media: There was a huge explosion in Damascus, the capital of Syria. According to the latest news from AFP on the 10th, the media reporter heard a huge explosion in Damascus, the capital of Syria, that morning. Agence France-Presse mentioned that just a few hours before the explosion, the British-based Syrian Human Rights Watch reported that since the fall of the Assad regime, Israel has launched about 250 air strikes on Syrian territory.Goldman Sachs: It is expected that the output of OPEC+will still depend on the data, and it is assumed that the output of OPEC+will increase for four consecutive months from next July under the strong demand in summer. It is estimated that India's oil demand will increase by 300,000 barrels per day next year, accounting for nearly 30% of the global oil demand growth.In 2024, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.35%, which was the ninth consecutive meeting and was in line with market expectations.
Strategy guide
Strategy guide 12-13